EUR USD Plunges on Concerns Greece Fiscal Problems Could Escalate PDF Print E-mail
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Friday, 05 February 2010 07:46

 [ take from http://www.forexhound.com]

EUR USD closed sharply lower, pressured by concerns that although the proposed new budget plan, the Greeks did not have a way to deal with its deficit problems themselves. Fear is also being raised that the fiscal problem in Greece is not isolated and can spread throughout the euro area should it default on debt. Risk aversion and traders set the redeemed of the Euro as they seek protection against a possible collapse in Greece.

This morning the European Central Bank announced that rates will remain at 1% and intact stimuli such as economic conditions in the euro zone is not good enough to ensure any changes. Although ECB President Trichet said he was "confident" that the Greeks would have budgetary control, act as if the merchant will take a bailout by the European Central Bank, the European Union or the International Monetary Fund to tackle the problem.

Trichet tried to calm fears of a meltdown in Greece by saying the euro zone is still facing major problems, but he was sure it was towards recovery. His statement failed to prevent further damage in the EURO as the focus began to shift from Greece to Portugal and Spain.

In the mid-session, the euro was trading 50% below the critical level at 1.3800. Weaknesses strong momentum that can push this market to a level, 618 at 1.3483 for a short period of time.

Theme day in almost every major currency market is risk aversion as investors sell high-risk commodities and stocks and buy assets that generate lower throughout the session in New York state debt problems in Greece will spread to other economies in the Euro Area. Dollar finished sharply higher versus all major currencies except the Yen.

Investor concerns about the misery in the Greek sovereign debt triggered a break in equities and commodities last night, but the decision of the Bank of England and the poor U.S. jobs data helped to accelerate the rally in the Dollar. Traders took refuge while seeking refuge in the Dollar and Japanese Yen.

Bank of England as it is expected to announce that interest rates will remain at historically low levels. In addition, choose to take a break in a quantitative ease program, but left open the possibility it will increase the asset repurchase program must ensure that state moving. Traders did not like the news and sell GBP USD aggressive. Investors are now concerned that the deficit problem in the UK could rise as they are in Greece.

The USD JPY finished sharply lower as investors seek safety in a lower yield on asset concerns about the possibility of sovereign debt default in Greece. Traders took the higher yen after the ECB does not provide a solution to the problem in Greece, also does not give confidence that the material would not spread to the euro area other nations. Japanese yen tends to strengthen the economy during the turmoil and uncertainty.

Look for this pair to continue to be indicators of risk sentiment. As long as there is fear of default, Yen should continue to appreciate. At this time, the Bank of Japan does not have plans to stop its currency rise. This can help fuel a steep decline during the period of EUR JPY near future.

The stronger dollar pressures demand for commodities, namely gold and crude oil. This helps to fuel the Canadian dollar weakness. Strong momentum driving overturned USD CAD through the last major peak at 1.0720. The graph shows that weekly 1.0870 is the next upside target.

A weaker euro once again raised fears Swiss National Bank will intervene to prevent the Swiss franc from appreciating too much compared to the Euro. This helps CHF CAD mount a strong rally throughout the day. Barring any changes to the Greek national debt situation, the next upside target of 1.0942.

The AUD USD closed sharply lower after making a new low for the week. News that the Australian Retail Sales fell 0.7% in December, driven mostly overnight rest. Additional pressure came from the decline in demand for higher yield assets. Concern risk is the catalyst behind the current weakness. December, 8734 on the damaged low on Thursday, changing the main trend on the weekly chart.

The NZD USD fell to its lowest level since September last night following the news that New Zealand's unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since 1999. Moving from 6.5% to 7.3% confirmed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand concerns about a weak economy.

News bearish today may force the RBNZ to change the estimates for a rate hike from the middle to later years. Additional weakness of pressure coming from traders dumping the assets generate higher because of the possibility that the debt problem in the Greek state will spread to other European countries. Graphic downloads reaffirm current trends down through the support of, 6970.

 

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