[ take from : http://www.forexcrunch.com]

The Euro broke down once again, and lost key support this time. The upcoming week is full with events, culminating with the initial releases of GDP on Friday. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, with a look downwards.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

UR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Apart from the Euro’s own weakness, it was also hurt by American Non-Farm Payrolls, which seemed confusing at first, but then confirmed the break of the support line with the Euro diving down. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow.

 1. Investor confidence Sentix: Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT. 2800 investors and analysts surveyed about their economic situation. Been negative since May 2008, long enough. Recently been increasing and reached the value -3.7. This is expected to edge up to -2.3, much closer to the positive feedback.
   2. German Final CPI: Published on Tuesday at 7:00 GMT. One month of strong price rises may be followed by a decline erased it. Month of December rose 0.8% followed by a decrease of 0.6% in January, according to early release. This may be confirmed.
   3. French Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 7:45 GMT. Europe's second-largest economy has seen a great increase 1.1% in industrial production, after months of drops. Another increase, of 0.6%, estimated in this important indicator.
   4. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 9:30 GMT. This report shows what European policy makers see as making their last rate decision. This can give a little more light waver in the euro zone.
   5. Introduction German GDP: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. Europe's largest economy is the driver of the entire continent. Germany was relieved recession already in Q2 of 2009, but has not been strong since then. This initial report for Q4 is expected to show that the economy grew by a very modest 0.1%, much smaller than the 0.7% increase in Q3. This is very fragile. A result of 0% or renewed contract will badly hurt the Euro. Note that French GDP (exp. 0.5%) and Italy GDP (exp. 0.1%) which was released later. They are the importance of the smaller, but each contraction would cost euro.
   6. French prelim Non-farm payrolls: Published on Friday at 7:45 GMT. The main task of French number is released only once per quarter - this makes an important event. French labor market is squeezed by 0.6% in Q3, and is now expected to grow by 0.2%. French unemployment rate is lower than the zone's 10% unemployment rate.
   7. Flash GDP: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. 3 hours after the first release of the GDP of Germany, the first release of the GDP for the whole continent is expected to be better - growth of 0.4%, just like in Q3. This will conclude Friday morning wavy for the EUR / USD.
   8. Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Industrial output continent released after major countries have done, but it's still a market mover. An increase of 1% fun last month is expected to be followed by a small increase of 0.3% this time.

EUR / USD Technical Analysis

EUR / USD is a big loser this week, losing all-important closed at 1.3750 and 1.3667. Every week in the last 4 weeks Euro loss saw another range - about 900 pips total.

1.3750 is an important support line, and now supplies the first line of resistance - resistance is strong. On top of that, 1.40 is a round number that serves as a support line before. 1.42 is the next line, because both good support and resistance lines are well recently.

1.4450 served on both sides on many occasions. In the last few weeks I've mentioned a few lines, but they are two far away now.

Looking down, is low at 1.3580 last week, and also a peak in April 2009. This is a small support line. 1.3420 was a more significant support line, working like that in several occasions during the spring of 2009.

Even lower, there is already a great distance to the next line - 1.3080. From this place, EUR / USD started a leap that started a long-term trends. May not be tested this week.

I remain bearish on EUR / USD.

Everything that happens to the Euro: troubled himself states in the pelvis, high unemployment rate and the strength of the dollar. Move quickly may indicate a more relaxed week this time, but still downward.

This popular couples receive a lot of analysis on the web. Here are a few:

    * James Chen discussed the downturn this time.
    * Joel Kruger at DailyFX provides technical analysis and record 10 high school days.
    * The Geek Knows review and take a look at the week ahead.
    * Mohammed Isah mark the next level for EUR / USD.