[ take from : http://www.forexcrunch.com ]

The Pound sure was a victim of the dollar’s storm, especially after the Non-Farm Payrolls. It’s at a nine-month low. The upcoming week consists of an important report by the BOE among other events. Here’s an outlook for British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Mervyn King “missed” an opportunity to hurt the Pound in the rate decision. He’ll get another chance this week, with the release of the Inflation report. Also note the interesting NIESR GDP estimate. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

 1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Published on Tuesday at midnight GMT. This figure is sometimes referred to as "mini retail sales". British Retail Consortium survey of its own members and provide early indicators for retail sales figures published later. In the past month to make a good annual increase of 4.2%. This time it is estimated that more gently.
   2. RICS House Price Balance: Published on Tuesday at midnight GMT and a bit overshadowed by the previous figures. Picture this housing prices showed a balance between the regions with rising prices and lower regions with time. After reaching a peak 35% in November, the balance fell back to 30%, and the release this week is expected to show another dip to 29%.
   3. Balance of Trade: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. Britain has a deficit in the trade balance stable, squeezed in recent months. Last month 6.8 billion deficit is expected to be followed by the current 6.6.
   4. Manufacturing Production: Published on Wednesdays at 9:30 GMT. This is the main indicator of the economy remain unchanged in the last two months, disappointing Pound. This time, an increase of 0.4% expected. Note that it is accompanied by general industrial production numbers, but manufacturing, 80% of the industry, the market moves more.
   5. BOE Inflation Report: Published on Wednesday at 10.30 GMT. This is an important quarterly event, in which projects the central bank's inflation and economic growth for a long time to come. Mervyn King refused to rising inflation after almost out of the government's target. Is he going to continue this attitude? With the release of the report, the King will hold a press conference and will give a general view on the economy.
   6. NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This independent agency predicts ongoing recession in Q3, and more right than economists on poor Q4 growth rate. With fresh monthly estimates, we will see how the British economy at the end of Q4 and in January 2010. This is not always immediately move the market, but have an impact on mood.
   7. CB Leading Index: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Although the number of compounds is based on figures already released, this gives a good overview and tends to move the Pound. Last month saw an increase of 0.9%, similar to previous months. A similar number may be followed.

GBP / USD Technical Analysis

Continued to fall from last week, Pound traded in a range between 1.5833, month low in December, to 1.6070, which is a new resistance line (not appear last week). Nearing the end of the week fell, lost finally 1.5833 and 1.5720 Almighty does not break lines in the 9 months. Near the very bearish 1.5640.

First and most important line of resistance at 1.5720. Last time it could be close to this line, the pound rose again and made a good comeback. Those days are gone.

Higher, 1.5833 and 1.6070 is the next resistance line. 1.6270 is the next line, managed to work like that in the last few weeks. There are a few lines above, but they are too far away now.

Looking down, strong support emerged at 1.5350. This is the line of resistance before breaking into the pound, and also serves as a resistance line about a year ago.

Even lower, 1.50 to play the role of support and resistance lines in early 2009. This is also a round number. Even lower, an important line of 1.4350 support, but Pound is too far from it. At least now ...

I'm bearish on the Pound

Despite some signs that both of Britain, the loss of important support line brought me back to the sentiment. Speech by Mervyn King this week may be too heavy on the Pound.